Flying High or Crashing into the Ocean?

With Captain America: Brave New World out in theaters now, a major question has been coming up among fans and reviewers alike: is this the Marvel Cinematic UniverseWhen it first began in 2008 with a little film called Iron Man no one suspected the empire that would follow. Superhero movies in the past, especially those not featuring either Batman or Superman, were usually terrible. And yet, Iron Man would lead to a long series of successful films, launching the most successful cinema brand in history: the Marvel Cinematic Universe.’s make or break moment? On its own that might seem like a silly question. Certainly Marvel is going to keep making films and shows as long as they’re even moderately successful, because profit is profit and Disney only really cares if people are tuning in and paying money. While not every project in the MCU has been financially viable over the last few years (Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and The Marvels being two obvious financial failures we can point to), Marvel is still at a point, currently, where they can keep making movies and not feel a “make or break” mentality.

Deep down, though, the cracks are showing and it might not be that much longer before we see Marvel really struggling, not just creatively but also financially. Everything for the studio, and really the comic maker as a whole, rests on the strength of their movie output. The comic business has been dying a slow death for a while, and it’s not what keeps Marvel afloat at this point. Their television output may not be all that successful at all, but it’s subsidized by being part of Disney+, so as long as the streamer is making money, that side of the business is fine. You know, so long as you ignore the fact that Disney+ lost a sizable portion of their subscriber base (700 thousand last quarter) and may not be doing so hot at this point. No, movies are Marvel’s bread and butter. If the movies die, they die.

That’s why getting audiences back in for the films and making them feel like events again is so important. They took the last year mostly off, with only three shows and one movie (Echo, Agatha All Along, What If…? Season 3, and Deadpool & Wolverine respectively) which, honestly still sounds like a lot. They wanted people to not feel so overloaded by Marvel content, to take a beat and creatively reset, to find their feet and be the must watch brand they were for nearly a decade. A noble goal, to be sure.

There’s only one problem with that: the studio doesn’t seem to have a clue how to make good movies anymore. Don’t get me wrong, Deadpool & Wolverine is a very watchable film, quite enjoyable for all the reasons a Deadpool movie should be. The Deadpool brand, though, isn’t really an MCU venture. Marvel Studios inherited it when they bought out Fox, and in reality it’s the last lingering film of the X-MenLaunched in 1963 and written by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby, the X-Men featured heroes distinctly different from those featured in the pages of DC Comics. Mutants who didn't ask for their powers (and very often didn't want them), these heroes, who constantly fought against humans who didn't want "muties" around, served as metaphors for oppression and racism. Their powerful stories would form this group into one of the most recognizable superhero teams in comics (and a successful series of movies as well). universe that Fox made. It was never a true MCU film, which is one of the many reasons why it worked. It relied on what was working in the Deadpool franchise and basically continued doing its thing for a third (and potentially final) outing. That’s not something the MCU is going to be able to do again and again.

If we’re going to judge how Marvel is doing, we have to compare their output post-Deadpool to how it was going pre-Deadpool, and on that front things still look grim. Marvel has gotten into the habit of second-guessing themselves, making films on the fly without scripts completely, putting the cart very much before the horse creatively and assuming they can fix everything in post. This leads to a lot of reshoots, a lot of audience testing, more reshoots, executive meddling, and everything else that can doom a film before it even really gets going.

We saw this with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which felt like a tech demo for The Volume, the big screen filming experience that has replaced green screens in movies. But that led to a film that felt airless and empty, without any of the joy of the previous two Ant-Man and the WaspFirst developed by Hank Pym, the "Pym Particle" allows Pym (and a variety of successors) to transform themselves, shrinking (and growing) to amazing sizes. Joined by Pym's wife (and later his daughter), the Wasp is Ant-Man's ally and cohort in fighting crime. films. We saw it again with The Marvels, a film that felt like it was edited to death before it even got released, with the vibe that most of the important character development and story for the film was left on the cutting room floor. And now we have it again with Captain America: Brave New World, a movie that seems like it was designed by committee, so afraid to actually engage as a character study of its lead Black character, or to involve itself with any of the geopolitics it handwaves at, that it has to essentially graft in most of a The HulkOnce the brilliant Dr. Bruce Banner had dreams of making the world a better place by building super soldiers to act as a shield for all mankind. Then an accident at his lab bathed him in gamma radiation. Now he has a living nightmare, as a big green guy lives within, just waiting for the rage to take over so he can be free. sequel just to fill its time and be a feature length adventure.

In short, Marvel is in a bad place and, from the looks of it, the studio isn’t getting out of it any time soon. Reviewers are being rougher with the studio than they’ve ever been before, with this fourth Captain America film having a sad 49% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, one of the worst performances for the series since, well, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Audiences have been more favorable, usually rating their recent films in the 80% range, but considering their best films were in the 90% or better range (Spider-man: No Way Home has a solid 97% among fans), that’s still a big drop for the studio.

Also consider that Captain America: Brave New World made just shy of $200 Mil globally in its first week of release. That’s not bad, per se, but we can count on a film making something on the order of three times its opening over the course of its run (give or take a few percentage points). Marvel films tend to have a steep drop-off with audiences, especially their lower rated ones, with most losing something on the order of 60% of their audience the second week, and more beyond. If we figure a similar drop-off (which seems fair considering word of mouth on the film isn’t exactly great) then this fourth Captain America film will probably make $600 Mil. Maybe $700 Mil at best, which by Hollywood math would put it just above break even (since it has a budget of $180 Mil and Hollywood films need to make about three times as much as their budget to break even).

All of this is to say that Captain America: Brave New World was probably not the big hit the studio was hoping for. They were likely wanting something more akin to Captain America: Civil War, which made $1.15 Bil (even if that was an unrealistic expectation considering that third Captain America film was basically a backdoor AvengersMarvel's answer to DC's Justice League, this team features many of Marvel's biggest superheroes working together to protect the world and avenge its evils. movie). The days where every Marvel film could pull in a cool Bil without even trying are certainly over, and audiences are now struggling to care about every movie, every adventure, that comes out in the MCU.

Much of this is a problem of Marvel’s own doing. As we’ve recounted many times before, the studio thought they could do no wrong post-Avengers: Endgame. They went into overdrive, flooding the market with films and TV shows, removing the “event feature” quality that had driven their works ever since The Avengers in 2012. On top of that, with so many products coming out at once, their quality has dipped. In the first three Phases, which totalled 23 films, Kevin Feige had his hand on all the movies and, barring some early stumbles (The Incredible Hulk, which was a financial disappointment, and Iron Man 2 which was a creative one, albeit financially successful), he guided the series through what we can think of now as a Golden Age. Success after success, with the franchise eventually pulling in at least a Bil per film, time and time again. It was a crazy run that likely won’t ever be matched by any other studio ever again.

But then when you look at Phase IV (17 shows and movies, and more combined hours of content than the first three phases put together) and then Phase V (12 works and counting, even with a “off year” in 2024 to let the series “rest”), it’s pretty clear that Feige can’t have his eyes on everything, and certainly he can’t do it with the same level of care he had before. The franchise is suffering, financially and creatively, and it shows. And yet the studio shows no signs of slowing down, not with two shows and another movie coming for Phase V, and already eight works announced in production for Phase VI. It feels like oversaturation is still the name of the game.

Which gets us back to Captain America: Brave New World. Is it the make or break moment for the series? In a way, yes. Audiences were likely hoping that, with a pause in theatrical releases, this film would show the fresh new direction for Marvel going forward. It didn’t do that. Or they were hoping for another fun adventure, like Deadpool & Wolverine, which it also failed to deliver. At the very least they probably wanted a solid adventure for Sam Wilson as he finally dons the Captain America title for his first solo adventure. Even there it really failed.

And it does show exactly all the flaws and issues Marvel has had over the years. The MCU has been directionless for most of Phase IV and Phase V. This could have been the film that gave Phase IV needed direction and cohesion (see our Spoiler Discussion) had it come out three years ago and not been a backdoor Hulk sequel. It could have been a great adventure about rebuilding the Avengers, or a story that showed the film in conjunction with real world politics. It could have been the Captain America film we needed. Instead it came out three years too late and did nothing for the MCU as a whole. It’s as directionless as the franchise it's part of, making it a weak entry that simply does more of the same, just like most everything Marvel has made over the last five-ish years.

In the end, while Captain America: Brave New World is an inoffensive and moderately watchable film on its own, it’s not a great continuation for its own franchise or the MCU as a whole. It’s mediocre at best in relation to the world it’s part of, and there’s no way fans come away from this film excited for more Marvel, let alone more Captain America. Which is sad because this film could have been great and Sam Wilson deserved much better. The MCU needs better than this if it’s ever going to rebuild itself.